It's hard to believe E3 is almost here. The mammoth video game expo held every July in Los Angeles is the place where the biggest games of tomorrow are unveiled for the first time. Last year E3 was a shadow of its former self with only about 4,000 attendees, compared to 70,000 in 2006. And while the 2008 show will be just as small, that doesn't mean there won't be a slew of new announcements from the Big Three console manufacturers. With the Wii outselling the PS3 and 360 by a factor of 4 to 1, Microsoft and Sony have a lot to prove. Hopefully, Nintendo will have a lot to announce since there are virtually no Wii games currently scheduled for the second half of 2008 (besides the recently announced Wario Land: Shake It!). What am I expecting from the Big Three console companies? Here are my E3 predictions.
Rumors point to Microsoft completely revamping the look of Xbox Live at E3.
Sony's biggest E3 game is Resistance 2 from Insomniac.
What surprises can we expect from Reggie at Nintendo?
Microsoft
While Microsoft was first off the blocks with the Xbox 360, it now stands at a bit of a crossroads: The industry-leading Xbox Live service hasn't seen much in the way of new improvements as of late; Wii has handily beat the 360 to the mass market audience; and in May, the PlayStation 3 started to outsell the 360. So while the 360 is still the system of choice for hardcore gamers, Microsoft is completely rethinking its longer-term strategy. That means you'll likely hear a lot about a new approach to the Xbox business at E3. Look for more new casual-skewing games like a Karaoke title and the potential introduction of a 3D version of Xbox Live with your own virtual 3D avatar (yes, Microsoft has its own answer to PlayStation's Home and Nintendo's Miis). Also widely rumored is a motion controller (nicknamed the Newton) which may be similar in functionality to the Wii Remote.
What am I expecting from the Big Three console companies? Here are my E3 predictions...
When it comes to new games, Microsoft will likely put most of its focus on Gears of War 2 and announce an exact release date in November. I also wouldn't be surprised to see additional single-player missions on display and perhaps the first information on the game's vehicles and long-rumored co-op mode. Beyond Gears, the Xbox lineup is a bit of a mystery. Expect to hear updates on Halo Wars and Fable 2 (which may or may not ship this year), and chances are good that Xbox will at least have a few new games to unveil. Could we finally hear details on Peter Jackson's Halo Chronicles or on a new project from Bungie? And will Rockstar unveil the first details about the downloadable episodes for Grand Theft Auto IV at the Xbox press conference? Only time will tell, but one thing is clear: Xbox needs to keep enticing the hardcore gamers while also moving aggressively toward the more casual consumers.
Sony
The PlayStation 3 certainly had its struggles early on. There was that outrageous $599 price tag, not much in the way of exclusive games, and an online service not ready for primetime. Many journalists have pegged 2008 as the year of the PS3 comeback, and there's certainly some evidence to support that theory. On the hardware side, BluRay winning the next-gen DVD format war is a big boon to the platform. And as for games, Metal Gear Solid 4 is a must-have that's exclusive to the PS3. Later this year, look for exclusives like LittleBigPlanet (which I think could be a Best of Show winner at E3), and Insomniac's first-person shooter Resistance 2. At E3 you'll likely see new demos of both these games, including the first reveal of a boss fight in Resistance 2.
But there are also some lingering questions about the PS3 that Sony needs to answer. Where, exactly, is Home, the much-touted 3D virtual world first shown in March 2007? Will it ship this year and will it be any good? What about the PSP handheld platform which seems to be lacking in good games besides the recent God of War? Sony has made tremendous strides in the past year, but the fact remains that it has a lot of ground to make up if it hopes to catch the Xbox 360's installed base in the U.S. One way to do that may be with some blockbuster game announcements. Rumors persist that we may hear something about the next game from the team behind Project ICO and perhaps news on God of War 3.
Nintendo
While hardcore gamers may still dismiss it as a bit of a gimmick, Nintendo's Wii is running laps around the competition on the sales charts. In May, for instance, 5 out of the top 10 selling games for the month were on the Wii, including Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii. So, while Microsoft and Sony are both rumored to be working on motion controllers that mimic the Wii's functionality, what does Nintendo do next? The honest answer is that no one knows. Nintendo has been extraordinarily tight-lipped regarding any game releases for the second half of 2008 or beyond. No news on a new Mario, Zelda, Pikmin, or anything else.
What does Mr. Miyamoto have up his sleeve? The only hint is a demo given in Japan last fall of Wii Music, an orchestral music simulator where you wave the Wii Remote like a conductor's baton. It makes sense for Nintendo to try and step into the music game genre made popular by Guitar Hero and Rock Band, so expect to see Wii Music on display at the show. Beyond that, Nintendo of America president Reggie Fils-Aime has promised a big surprise for ""core gamers"" at the show. Is it the long-rumored rebirth of the NES classic Kid Icarus? A brand new Zelda game for the holidays? Or something completely different? Reggie went on record with me at the Game Developers Conference to say there will be a big game for the holidays, but we will likely have to wait until July 15 for the details to emerge.
But why speculate about E3 when you can read what really went down? Next month I'll be back with my full E3 report on the hottest games on display, the big surprises, and a look at who I think won the press conference war!



