I think it depends on what you want to quantify as a failure or success. In terms of making money, offering set piece after set piece and a competitive multiplayer experience that many will want to keep coming back to utter success.
Activision is going to spare no expense to make sure there is a standard level of quality in the product. It being a complete cash cow they can't afford a mis step this year especially when they have EA breathing down their neck with battlefield 3.
In terms of moving the industry forward or introducing anything new to make it stand out. Complete failure. CoD is a victim of its own success. At the end of the day Activision is a business and won't put money into innovation til sales show they need to. Battlefield 3 might be the thing that makes them up the bar but that is yet to be seen.
CoD is a product of people's complacency and will show little new. Expect to pay for features in CoD this year in some capacity for the online mode, Activision isn't a charity.